DECISION MAKING

Decision Making  is the process of making a choice from a list of alternatives whilst Problem Solving is a process of determining appropriate actions required to ease or assuage a standing problem. In decision making, managers are charged with the task of using their judgment to identify events, items and courses of action appropriate enough to solve a problem.

For instance, if a crisis occurs in a company during operations, management will need to form a think-tank committee that will be tasked to solve the problem at hand. After thinking through the problem, various options will be suggested. The committee will therefore explore rationally and uphold the best option. So, we say a decision is made. The intent of problem solving on the other hand is to secure and correct something that is off the beam or erroneous. This cannot be achieved without first making a decision and relying on the best option to the solve problem.

Problem solving and decision-making are important skills for business and life. Problem-solving often involves decision-making, and decision-making is especially important for management and leadership. There are processes and techniques to improve decision-making and the quality of decisions. Decision-making is more natural to certain personalities, so these people should focus more on improving the quality of their decisions. People that are less natural decision-makers are often able to make quality assessments, but then need to be more decisive in acting upon the assessments made. Problem-solving and decision-making are closely linked, and each requires creativity in identifying and developing options

6.3 TYPES OF MANAGERIAL DECISIONS

Programmed and Non-programmed decisions typify the two major types of decisions made by management.  

6.3.1 Programmed Decisions/Structured Decisions

Programmed decisions usually require little thought and can be delegated to lower level managers. Programmed decisions often exhibit the following characteristics:

v  Repetitive, routine, often automated, usually involve things rather than people.

v  Existing precedents i.e. managers can rely on things that were successful in the past without having to establish new methods.

v  Well structured and organised.

v  They have a high degree of certainty of the outcome of events

v  The required information on working rules, formats, procedures and methods are in most cases, if not all, available.

v  They are dependent on top management and therefore require no originality.

6.3.2 Non-programmed Decisions/Unstructured Decisions

They are the opposite of programmed decisions usually made at senior level. The most prominent features are:

v  Non-routine, novel,

v  Decision rules are not known

v  They require original thinking and usually taken by top executives

v  They cannot be delegated to lower levels

v  They have a high degree of uncertainty

v  They may involve things but always involve people

Programmed decisions involve situations where the procedures to be followed in making decisions are specified in advance. The inventory recorder decisions and machine loading decisions are typical examples. Non-programmed decisions involve situations where it is not possible to specify in advance most of the decision procedures to follow examples are: launching of new products acquisitions, mergers and personnel appointments.

Note:

Another type of decision making category is possible even though the two major ones (programmed and non-programmed) are usually highlighted. It is known as Semi-structured Decisions.

6.3.2 Semi-structured Decisions

Some decisions can be prespecified, but not enough to lead to a definite recommended decision. E.g. Daily work assignment, Capital budgeting, major changes in employee benefit etc would probably range from unstructured to semi-structured.

 6.4. DECISION MAKING CONDITIONS

Sometimes, decisions are made under certain conditions. These conditions are indispensable and managers can be swerved if they allow such parameters to elude their decision making. There are instances when managers are aware of such factors and can manipulate situations to their advantage. Sometimes managers are unaware about certain situations. These decision making conditions can be seen below:

I. Risk

The probability of failure is known as risk. In many cases, managers cannot be certain of future outcomes even though they can calculate their chances of success or failure. Thus a chosen alternative may be subject to chance. As noted by Dr. M Smith, ‘Risk is not necessarily a bad thing – it is often associated with higher returns.

However, it needs to be managed carefully.’ It must be noted that the level of risk should not be kept at levels that might jeopardize the fundamental stability of the organization.

II. Uncertainty

                                                                                                                                    

Uncertainty is the inability of decision makers to compute the likelihood of a failure. A decision maker may not be able to calculate the risk attached to alternatives chosen to solve a problem. The sources of uncertainty are: the absence of information and complexity of the environment. For instance, a production plant manager may be uncertain about the demographic features of consumers of a factory’s products. Marketing managers of a company may not also be certain of the factors influencing the purchasing decisions of consumers.

   

III. Ambiguity

When alternatives cannot be clarified they are said to be ambiguous. Ambiguity exists when a decision maker is not clear about goals. They also exist where it is difficult to define the given alternatives. Managers in this case are unclear about the right problem or alternative to tackle.

6.5 THE RATIONAL DECISION MAKING PARADIGM

This model of decision making developed from the classical economic theory presupposes perfect knowledge of all factors surrounding the decision and adopts a rational, mechanistic approach to decision making.    

Steps in the Rational Decision Making Process

Decision making is a process based on reasoned judgment on the part of managers. To be able to perform the functions of management in organisations, rational and logical decisions should be made. The stages of the decision making model can be seen as follows:

I.    Identifying Problem (Detect Problem)   

Search the environment for conditions calling for decisions to be made. The most important step in good decision making is to recognise a decision to be made.

In essence, decision making is a problem solving process that involves eliminating the bottle necks to organisational goal attainment. The first step in getting rid of these bottle necks is to identify or detect a problem.

II. Analyse the Problem (Diagnose Problem)

The problem identified should be examined critically to be able determine the needed inputs or courses of action to solve it. Once the problem has been identified, it must be diagnosed.

III. Gathering Information

Managers must be able to list and search out many alternative solutions that exist to solve the problem. Questionnaires, interviews and observations are some of the techniques that can be employed to collect information on the issue(s) at stake.

IV. Selection and Implementation

This involves the choice of the most suitable alternative from the information gathered and putting it into action. Correct decisions will become useless if not implemented.

V. Evaluate Decision

Making a review on assessment of choices – the implementation process should be monitored to check whether a decision was necessary so that an adjustment can be made if it becomes necessary. In extreme cases, it may be prudent to abandon decisions after careful evaluation.

Identifying Problem

Analyse or Diagnose Problem

Gathering Information

Selection and Implementation

Evaluate Decision

 

6.6 CREATIVE DECISION MAKING TECHNIQUES/TOOLS

Creative decision making is a form of decision making that takes place in groups. These group members meet and rely on both verbal and non verbal interaction to communicate with each other. At group level creativity is encouraged  

Creative decision making encourages consensus building in groups. Decisions at group level are a catalyst for creative ideas and innovation as every member of the group elicit the best alternative solution to the problem.

Some creative decision making techniques are discussed as below:

1. Interacting Group Technique

In this technique, members meet face-to-face and rely on group opinion. Interacting groups censor themselves and put pressure on individual members to conform to group opinion.

2. Brainstorming

It is meant to overcome the pressures for conformity in interacting group that retard the development of creative alternatives. It is an idea generation process that specifically encourages any and all alternatives, while withholding any criticism of those alternatives.

In a typical brainstorming session, the group leader states the problem to the lot of people sitting around a table in a manner that will be understood by all present.

In a given period of time, group members throw in freely as many alternatives as they can. During the session criticisms are not allowed. All alternatives are recorded for later discussion and scrutiny.  In effect, brainstorming is a process for generation of ideas for later diagnosis and examination – a way of developing new ideas, in a discussion where several people make lots of suggestions and the best ones are selected.

3. Nominal Group Technique

It is a group decision making technique in which individual members meet face-to-face but work in independent fashion. Judgment on the issue is gathered systematically without recourse to interpersonal interaction until the session is over. Group members are present but members work independently. The following steps are employed in the use of this method.

I.                 Members meet as a group but before they discuss anything, each member writes down his or her ideas concerning the problem.

II.               The individual ideas gathered are presented to the team/group leader. Members then take turns to speak on what they have gathered. There is no discussion until all ideas are gathered.

III.             The group reviews, analyses and evaluates the ideas presented in a skillful and diligent manner without apathy and bias.

IV.            At this final point, the group disintegrates once more to rank the ideas presented. The alternative with the highest aggregate is adopted and taken as the final decision.

4. Gordon Technique

The Gordon technique involves the use of broad and abstract generalisation to introduce the topic under discussion. From this broad dimension, issues are then narrowed down to an exclusive and specific end. This technique is employed among groups with a high degree of knowledge and expertise about the issued to be decided. It therefore requires high level cognitive skills coupled with specialisation.

5. Brain Writing Technique

Brain writing is similar to the nominal group technique except that individual members write out their ideas and sample them without any consultation with group members. It is evident that brain writing techniques generate high quality initiatives, minimise interpersonal conflicts and reduce the tension on group conformity.

6. Synectics

This method was developed by George M. Prince (April 5, 1918 - June 9, 2009) and Gordon. The name Synectics comes from Greek and means "the joining together of different and apparently irrelevant elements." Synectics is a way to approach creativity and problem-solving in a rational way. "Traditionally, creative process has been considered after the fact...The Synectics study has attempted to research creative process in vivo, while it is going on. This method gives credence to problem-analysis and the alienation of the original problem by drawing comparison between two situations. A solution is likely to emerge from a comparative study of the events. Synectics is more of a problem-solving technique which requires a lot of time and effort. It is also complex and procedural.

According to Gordon, Synectics research has three main assumptions:

• The creative process can be described and taught;
• Invention processes in arts and sciences are analogous and are driven by the same "psychic" processes;
• Individual and group creativity are analogous.

With these assumptions in mind, Synectics believes that people can be better at being creative if they understand how creativity works.

One important element in creativity is embracing the seemingly irrelevant. Emotion is emphasised over intellect and the irrational over the rational. Through understanding the emotional and irrational elements of a problem or idea, a group can be more successful at solving a problem.

Gordon emphasised the significance of a system termed "metaphorical processes. This he believes will make the familiar strange and the strange familiar". He articulated his theory on the following: "Trust things that are alien, and alienate things that are trusted." This promoted on the one hand, the idea of fundamental problem-analysis and, on the other hand, the isolation of the original problem through the creation of analogies. It is thus possible for new and surprising solutions to emerge.

To gather ideas for a start, synectics develops a system dubbed “springboarding”. This is incorporated with the brainstorming technique.  It helps decision makers to start with beginning ideas (springboarding); incorporate brainstorming and subsequently widen the process with metaphor. For idea development in decision making an evaluation process is added.

Synectics is more demanding of decision making than brainstorming, as the steps involved mean that the process is more complex and requires a lot of effort. It is also much more rewarding because the end product is action not just ideas.

7. Electronic Meeting

                                                                                                                    

This is the most recent method to decision making which merges the nominal group technique with sophisticated computer technology.

It is a meeting in which group members interact on computers. Up to 50 people sit around a horseshoe-shaped table, empty, except a series of computer terminals. Issues are presented to participants and responses are typed which appear on their computer screen.

Individual comments are displayed on a projection screen. The major advantages with this technique are the anonymity, honesty and speed. People can be very honest without attracting penalty.

It is fast because chitchat is eliminated, discussions do not digress, and many participants can talk at once without interruptions.

The choice of one technique over another will depend on the criteria to be emphasized. For instance, the interacting group is good for establishing rapport and building group cohesiveness; brainstorming keeps social pressures at a minimum; the nominal group techniques is inexpensive for generating a large number of ideas and electronic meeting process and transmits ideas very fast.

6.7 BENEFITS OF DECISION MAKING

1. There is a diversity of opinion for identifying alternatives, gathering information and establishing objectives
2. Greater employee satisfaction with decisions they help to make.
3. Decision making serves as an aid for planning.
4. Decision making create a forum for young executives to observe and learn from senior executives – it is during these decision making sessions that young executives watch their senior colleagues in action and as such, emulate them. 
5. There is a high degree of certainty on issues which were properly decided.

6.8 BARRIERS TO EFFECTIVE DECISION MAKING

1. Managers tend to be over self satisfied with decisions they make – complacency
2. Defensive avoidance -   because managers become satisfied with decisions taken, they are usually eluded from protecting the decisions from failure.
3. Unilateral decisions are made where powerful personalities dominate decision making process. Such decisions however might not be in the interest of the organisation.
4. Lack of objectivity – human thought is greased with the slime of self opinion. It is very difficult for human beings to be totally objective. Dr. M. Smith will refer to this as, ‘Bounded Rationality’ i.e. a rationality that is restricted by human frailty.
5. Time constraints
6. Communication failure – it is apparent that the essentials of decision making process must be communicated to those involved. Failure to transmit such basics will result in futile decisions.
7. Procrastination – this is the tendency to delay events contributing to decision making without a valid reason. This can affect the effectiveness of decisions.
8. Financial constraints
9. The complexity of environment for decision making
10. Incomplete information for decision making.

HARUNA SULEMANA

FOUND IN THE WILDERNESS

A very long time ago, in the wilderness of Chezam mountains lived a shepherd called Maltiba. Maltiba was a very humble shepherd who took very good care of his flock. In the mornings, he will follow his flock of sheep up the mountains to graze. At mid-day, he will command the flock down a river valley to drink water. From the river, he usually trod down a path to a kapok tree that stood along the pathway to Chezam.

It was the custom of all shepherds in that village to gather under this kapok tree for their lunch. In line with the rules of these shepherds, the young boys among them were usually required to go back home to the houses of each shepherd, carry back food and water to the kapok tree. After lunch each shepherd gathered his flock back to the bush to graze.

Such was life among shepherds in Chezam village for years. One bright afternoon after lunch, Maltiba went along a road leading to the highest peak of the mountain. He stopped at a point to allow his flock to graze. As he stood relaxed with both hands on a firm hold of his club against the ground. There came a sudden wild rash of the animals towards his direction. Maltiba realized that danger was imminent; he quickly stood up, fetched his bow and arrows and started moving towards the direction where the sheep were running from. Maltiba maneuvered stealthily through the bushes and shrubs until he was a bit further away from the animals. He got up and to his amazement; a baby wolf was lying close to its mother wolf. The kind shepherd could observe from where he stood that, there was no life in the mother wolf. He untied a piece of cloth he wore on his waist, tied back his bow, went closer and took the baby wolf in his arms with excitement. When it was evening, Maltiba went home with his new found baby wolf.

Back home, Yelsima the uncle of Maltiba had already prepared the sheep pen and waited for the return of his nephew. Maltiba arrived with a baby wolf in his arms. His uncle suffered a pang of awful doom at the sight of this strange animal. After a close observation, Yelsima identified and protested vehemently against the idea of keeping a wild animal in the house, especially in the midst of a flock of sheep.

Maltiba on the other hand felt so much sympathy for the wolf and continuously pleaded with his uncle to allow him keep the animal. Yelsima had no option than to allow Maltiba to keep the wolf. He however told his nephew that, “The smell of burnt hair is better sensed by the man who burns his own hair” and warned that he may be the first to suffer if the animal grows to be wild.

In the midst of the flock was an old ewe. Maltiba milked the ewe everyday to feed the baby wolf. He fed and took care of the wolf until it grew into a full-sized animal.

For sometime the wolf mixed freely with sheep and showed no sign of wildness. One early morning, Maltiba rolled away the cover of the pen to let out the animals. All the animals came out except the wolf and the old ewe which was often milked to feed the wolf. Surprised at this, Maltiba peeped through the pen. He was shocked to see that the wolf had killed the ewe and was busy having party with the mutton.

Maltiba in anger and awe rushed back to his room for his bow and arrows. He charged forth and shot at the wolf which was still inside the pen. Because of his standing posture the shot was not properly made, but the wolf was slightly hurt on the fore leg.

The wolf was alarmed by this hurt and roared boisterously at its God-father. In the next moment, it sprang at Maltiba. He was able to swerve to the other side of the pen. He run and hid himself to prepare another arrow.

Yelsima, the landlord, heard some noise outside the compound and came out immediately from the room. He understood the situation right away but ill-prepared for an encounter with the beast.

Fortunately for him the home grown wild beast did not come after him. Rather it galloped into the bush threatening any domestic animal that came its way.

The wolf chased people on their way to the farms there was indeed every indication that the taste of a sheep’s blood had made the beast so wild to be feared.

For three days nobody from Chezam could go into the bush for fear of the wolf. All the shepherds decided to come together to take care of their flock.

One afternoon a young boy among the shepherds went into the some nearby bushes only to see a middle-sized ram lying dead with some of its parts missing. He run back and informed his comrades. They quickly left the spot for another place. When they got back home, the matter was reported to the elders.

The following day, the elders of Chezam asked the shepherds to go at a different direction and not so deep into the bush. When they had left, a group of hunters were gathered with the aid of a talking drum. The hunters were then sent to look for the wolf.

Things however took a different turn. The search party of hunters combed everywhere and could not find the wild beast. Instead, it was the shepherds who spotted it again. When they were busy commanding the flock, Mindini, one of the heards boys spotted the wolf and informed the others.

The shepherds were not scared, and stood their grounds. The young boys were asked to command the flock away whilst the elderly ones battled with the wolf. They shot at it from a distance and after a long struggle the wolf escaped unhurt. At the time it was spotted, the hunters were far cry away from the shepherds and before they could arrive to the aid of the shepherd boys, the beast was gone.

For many days, every effort made to subdue the beast proved futile, and sometimes when the people woke up in the morning, a goat was either missing or found dead with some traces of the carcass outside.

At the gray of dawn one early morning as a group of young men prepared to go after the wolf, Yelsima offered Libation to their ancestors. He then went into a small hurt in the middle of his compound and removed an ancient arrow which was a preserve of battles. He handed over the arrow to Maltiba and said, “son of the land, the beast that survived your toil shall surely die by your hand. Go with them and you shall surely capture the beast that has decided to turn against us”, Yelsima concluded.

Yelsima was compelled to act in such a manner due to the numerous complaints and angry remarks from the people of Chezam. Members of that noble community were unhappy about the problem Maltiba had brought on them.

The search party went looking for the wild animal until they found it at the river valley. The wolf had just finished drinking water and before it could turn, an arrow shot from Maltiba sunk deep in to its head. The wolf struggled for a while. With the help of the many strokes of arrow shots from the others, the animal fell dead.

The party was greeted with cheers when they were returning from the bush with the dead wolf carried shoulder high; amidst singing and dancing. Everybody gathered at Yelsima’s house to thank and praise the young men for their bravery.

The shepherd thereafter went about their daily activities in the village of Chezam peacefully.

                                                                                                                                  By Sulemana Haruna

SULEMANA ZUHDAH

SULEMANA ZUHDAH KASI 

WORDS OF WISDOM

The Greatest Gift

The Greatest Gift God can grant man is a blessed child. The origin of a progeny is a child. A child is a gift of the Almighty God. Wherever we are and whatever we do, we are all gifts to the world through our fathers and mothers. We are gifts who shall be useful to ourselves, to our families and to the whole world – a commitment to fulfill the social contract in the environment in which we are. 

Fathers and mothers must be torch bearers to brighten the path of their children. In the words of John F Kennedy, ‘A child mis-educated is a child lost’.

After parents have paved the way for their children, pouring splendor on their path ways, the children will remain teachable. An anonymous writer has tutored that man should never try to teach a pig to sing, because this action will waste the man’s time and annoy the pig. It is only when children are teachable that there can be a complete paradigm shift from a state of ignorance to light. In such an ‘Eden of capability’ an ideal transformation of a child can take place.

As a teacher I shall do my best to light the path of my progeny and it shall remain the best legacy I will bequeath to them. Ben Sweetland once said that ‘we cannot hold the torch to light another’s path without brightening our own’.